Why Estimating Delegate Counts Could Backfire

When it comes to counting GOP delegates this year, there seem to be as many different tallies as there have been primary contests. NPR launched its own delegate tracker this week. As we noted on Wednesday, it only counts delegates officially awarded by state or party rule.

On Thursday, uber-primary watcher Josh Putnam warns of extrapolating delegate counts from states that do not explicitly tie election results to the actual allocation of delegates.

Exhibit A: the Ron Paul campaign claims they are quietly using the caucus system to load up state conventions with Paul supporters. If they succeed, they could win delegates for Paul beyond his share of the vote in those states.

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