Political scientists from the Red River region's universities examine prevailing trends they saw come out of the midterm election.
On the Dec. 6 runoff between Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu and Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy:
“One thing I did notice is on the not surprise column: Mary Landrieu is doing very well in Orleans Parish. But there’s been a large migration pattern to suburbs out of New Orleans. If you look at Jefferson Parish and St. Tammany Parish on the North Shore, Mr. Cassidy is running away with the votes there. We’re looking at a strong suburban turnout for him.” – Dr. Greg Granger, , Natchitoches, La.
“She lives to find another day, but she’s in serious trouble. Something really unusual would have to happen between now and Dec. 6 for her to have a chance. If dynamics continue as they are, then she’s not going to win in a runoff either.” – Dr. Jeffrey Sadow,
“U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu has tried to differentiate herself from national Democrats, and to really try to make this a contest on the basis of state and local concerns and her ability to serve constituents through legislation aimed specifically at the state or legislation that assists people in the state.” Dr. Jeffrey Sadow, LSU Shreveport
On Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton defeating two-term Democratic Senator Mark Pryor, in an expensive and heated race:
“One of the interesting things about this election is that for the first time I’ve ever seen, Tom Cotton at least has tried to talk a lot more about foreign policy than you’d normally see in a Senate election. I think he must believe that that plays to his strengths. The criticism of Tom Cotton has been is that he’s not really a traditional Arkansas retail politician.” – Dr. Paul Babbitt, , Magnolia, Ark.
“Mike Beebe, the current very popular incumbent democratic governor, doesn’t seem to have any coattails, and hasn’t really been able to pull Mike Ross along. Normally, you’d expect a popular incumbent to be able to help, and he hasn’t.” – Dr. Paul Babbitt, Southern Arkansas University
On the changing landscape of politics in the South:
“This could really signal the final step in the conversion of Louisiana and to some extent its political culture from a state that was very populist-oriented and tightly controlled by Democrats. If U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu does not to win reelection, we’d have no statewide elected officials that were Democrats at any level.” – Dr. Jeffrey Sadow, LSU Shreveport
“That’s what straight-ticket voting gives you often is people associating with the top of the ticket. No matter how far away Washington is, it’s close enough to offer up an indictment of a local candidate.” – , , Nacogdoches, Texas
“Texans are loyal to their party. They change their mind very slowly. We are tied closely to our sports teams. We’re tied closely to our party, and it takes a lot to change our mind.” – Dr. Ken Collier, Stephen F. Austin State University
“The election in some ways fits our basic idea that Arkansas like the rest of the South is becoming more Republican. But in other ways it seems to reflect the way in which traditional ways of doing Arkansas politics --that is going out to the county fairs and various festivals and meeting with voters -- isn’t as important as it used to be.” – Dr. Paul Babbitt, Southern Arkansas University
“Particularly in second terms that don’t very often go well for presidents, the midterm election in particular can be pretty troubling for their party. I think it’s just pragmatic politics that many of the Democrats, especially at the U.S. Senate level where they have to face an entire state’s electorate where the president may not be overwhelmingly popular, are just playing it practical and saying they don’t want to take any risks. These elections are about averting any risks whatsoever.” – Dr. Greg Granger, Northwestern State University
“Where we should probably be paying most attention to is at some of the governor’s elections that are out there. Because, somebody who does well at the governor’s level may find themselves running for president if not in two years, in the next six years. There are a couple people out there who might be interesting presidential candidates.” – Dr. Paul Babbitt, Southern Arkansas University
On Louisiana’s 14 amendments:
“A lot of people I think are curious as to why the Legislature and the governor can’t handle some of this on their own or why New Orleans can’t handle its own matters of property taxes? I think it’s confusing to a lot of people. But having said that, it’s the way it is. I think a lot of Louisianans have simply gotten used to it.” – Dr. Greg Granger, Northwestern State University
“Maybe, that’s what Louisianans are saying: we’re kind of tired of this way of passing policy. I’ve been hearing a lot of complaints, especially about having so many on one ballot at one time. You’re given three minutes in the voting booth, so you really have to know what you’re doing. I think that bugs some people.” – Dr. Greg Granger, Northwestern State University
On former Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards earning a runoff spot in the 6th Congressional District race, who will face Republican Garret Graves:
“You have somebody with a lack of a better term the star power or the attention-getting power of Mr. Edwards, and at least when it comes to statewide and nationwide coverage, it really tends to blur any other opponent in that election. They don’t really get the platform they might otherwise deserve. Having said that, it’s perfectly in the man’s legal right to run for this election.” – Dr. Greg Granger, Northwestern State University
“His odds are incredibly long of winning, but you can’t win if you don’t try. So he’s out there trying.” – Dr. Jeffrey Sadow, LSU Shreveport
On the hefty price tag of being elected to public office, and special interests groups:
“Here we are at another $4 billion midterm election, and that has been the norm for the last few midterms. As the Supreme Court has pretty much opened up floodgates of campaign spending, I don’t think we’ll ever see this in reverse. It just seems to be more and more.” – Dr. Greg Granger, Northwestern State University
“You wonder what these groups are achieving because on one hand they buy ads that may or may not have an impact. On the other hand, these are groups who will go to people who win the elections we’re having to today, and they’ll say, hey we put millions into getting you elected, you should feel indebted to us. And that’s what worries a lot of us.” – Dr. Ken Collier, Stephen F. Austin State University
“There’s a lot of money being spent to make a number of ads, but the ads really aren’t very good. So, we have a lot of money and they’re buying a lot of ads. But there’s not more creativity or talent going into making the ads. So we get a lot of things that kind of look the same. I just don’t think they’re as effective as many people want to believe.” – Dr. Paul Babbitt, Southern Arkansas University
On Caddo Parish School Board races wheretwo incumbents lost in seven contested race, and three district races head to a runoff:
“I think three or four incumbents on the Caddo Parish School Board are going to get dumped in this election, which is not typical. You might see a casualty per election cycle. There seems to be some real dissatisfaction over the direction the school board is taking.” – Dr. Jeffrey Sadow, LSU Shreveport
On the accuracy of polling ahead of the midterm election:
“The polls are still working, despite the fact that people are shifting to cell phones and that our turnout models may be changing. We can still predict an election pretty well. But, if you’re looking for surprises and something interesting to talk about late at night, maybe not so good. There’s been no huge surprises in Arkansas. From what I can tell across the country in the national elections, no huge surprises anywhere, really.” – Dr. Paul Babbitt, Southern Arkansas University
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